FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A THEORETICAL ANALYSIS OF THE TRANSFORMING CHINESE ECONOMY

Abstract. We conduct a theoretical investigation into how financial reforms are affecting the long‐run economic performance of the partially reformed Chinese economy. In a model with a dual structure in commodity production and financial repression, allowing the co‐existence of a state banking system and an informal credit market and introducing heterogeneity in the transaction technologies of individuals, we examine the interactions between the state banking system and the informal credit market, and the effects of various measures of financial liberalization on individuals’ optimal portfolio choices and the macroeconomic aggregates.     

A qualitative cross-impact approach to find the key technology

This article presents a qualitative analysis method based on fuzzy relations for a cross-impact model designed for a technology impact assessment. The cross-impact knowledge is often uncertain or fuzzy when dealing with future events. Assessing the cross-impact relationships among future technologies creates a more uncertain or fuzzy situation because of the time and the uncertainty involved in evaluating future technologies. In addition, experts prefer to use linguistic terms or fuzzy values in their predictions. Thus a cross-impact matrix is represented as fuzzy relations on causal concepts. We therefore develop inference algorithms based on fuzzy relations and show a simple technology assessment example to illustrate this approach. This approach is useful in finding the key technology because it considers not only the direct impact but also the indirect impact.     

Dividend policies in Australia and Japan

This paper presents the findings of a comparative study of dividend policies in Australia and Japan. It examines panel data from the constituent stocks of the ASX 200 Index of the Australian stock market and the Nikkei 225 Index of the Japanese stock market. The evidence that Australia, with an imputation tax system which favors dividends over capital gains, has a significantly higher dividend payout than Japan lends support to the influence of environment on dividend policy. Dividend policies in Australia and Japan are affected by different financial factors. Fixed effects regression models indicate that dividend policies are affected positively by size in Australia and liquidity in Japan, and negatively by risk in Japan only. An industry effect is found to be significant in both countries.     

A learning-based model of repeated games with incomplete information

This paper tests a learning-based model of strategic teaching in repeated games with incomplete information. The repeated game has a long-run player whose type is unknown to a group of short-run players. The proposed model assumes a fraction of ‘short-run’ players follow a one-parameter learning model (self-tuning EWA). In addition, some ‘long-run’ players are myopic while others are sophisticated and rationally anticipate how short-run players adjust their actions over time and “teach” the short-run players to maximize their long-run payoffs. All players optimize noisily. The proposed model nests an agent-based quantal-response equilibrium (AQRE) and the standard equilibrium models as special cases. Using data from 28 experimental sessions of trust and entry repeated games, including 8 previously unpublished sessions, the model fits substantially better than chance and much better than standard equilibrium models. Estimates show that most of the long-run players are sophisticated, and short-run players become more sophisticated with experience.     

A Delphi technology forecasting approach using a semi-Markov concept

This paper suggests a technology forecasting approach based on a semi-Markov model, which appropriately describes the probabilistic nature of a sequential technology development process. This approach focuses primarily on the utilization of the information that has been skipped in conventional Delphi survey data. That is, through a simple statistic, the interrelationships among sequential technology developments can be extracted in a formal structure of a semi-Markov model from the original Delphi panel's estimates. A simulation technique is developed to forecast the development process by utilizing the information on such interrelationships. This technique provides a flexible and useful tool for R&D planners or project managers, especially in postanalysis of Delphi forecasting. To make good use of the approach, a computer-based interactive Delphi data analysis system (IDEAS) is implemented in IBM PC.     

新疆全面建设小康社会的基本判断及政策启示

本文通过构建新疆全面建设小康社会的评价指标体系,按照国家全面建设小康社会的目标进行了量化评估。结果表明,新疆全面小康社会的实现程度很低,与全面小康的目标还存在着较大差距。根据测算结果对新疆全面建设小康社会中存在的问题进行了系统的分析,并为实现新疆全面建设小康社会,提出了前瞻性科学决策的能力。     

农民权益保障视角下的土地征用程序研究*——以河北省5个建设项目为例

[目的]以河北省奥运村核心区、京张高铁、大唐电厂、京蔚高速、延崇高速5个建设项目为研究对象,分析我国现行征地程序制度在实际实施中存在的问题,并提出有针对性的政策建议,为我国征地程序的完善和征地工作的开展提供参考。[方法]通过问卷调查和访谈了解农民对于征地的认知,从自由的事先知情的同意(FPIC)原则的4个方面对征地程序制度及实施情况进行对比分析。[结果](1)我国的土地征用程序不能完全符合FPIC原则,(2)征地程序实施的偏差使农民权益受损,(3)征地中的非正式治理方式激化征地矛盾,(4)政府和农民的对立关系破坏平等协商机制,(5)政府对不同规模征地项目的实施行为存在明显差异。[结论]保障农民权益和减少用地矛盾需要从FPIC层面完善征地程序,增强在实施中的程序公开和透明,并打破政府和农民之间的对话壁垒,实现协商的"全过程性"和"灵活性"。     

Do physician incentives affect hospital choice? A progress report

The US health reforms of March 2010 introduced new provisions for physicians providing Medicare and Medicaid services to be given financial incentives to control costs. Physician payment mechanisms generating similar incentives are currently used by some health maintenance organizations in California. We describe an ongoing research project in which we investigate physician responses to these payment schemes. The question is whether patients whose physicians have incentives to control hospital costs are admitted to lower-priced hospitals than other patients, all else equal. We provide an initial analysis of California hospital discharge data from 2003, documenting evidence consistent with this hypothesis.